歐盟多國的財務狀況令人擔心，最大劑的當然是前文跟大家提及過的歐豬四國，即P.I.G.S.。其實很多歐盟國家的財政一向有著不少問題，就以歐豬四國中最早出事的希臘為例，政府基本上是年年財赤，同時又因著政治上的原因，不能有效減少政府開支。你可能會說，美國不也是同樣，年年財赤，同時政府又不能有效減少開支。但問題就是這個世界就是這麼不公平啊！美國可以長期發債兼總有支持者認購，但一個希臘怎能跟奧巴馬口中永不做第二的美國平起平坐！(很殘酷，但卻是現實！)
所以歐盟諸國能在金融海嘯後苟延殘全到現在，以可算是一個奇蹟，當然這個奇蹟亦得助於歐洲央行於金融海嘯後降低接納成員國債券用作抵押品之要求，只要評級有3個B已可以。這令歐盟一些財政較差的國家所發行之債券的用值有所提高，亦直接令她們的債券有了承接。
但由於歐洲央行將逐步撤回一些金融海嘯時的臨時措施，若央行不再接納評級只有3個B的成員國之債券，便無異於蒸發了這些債券的用值，這又怎能再吸引投資者？
2010年，歐盟似乎注定是多事之秋歐盟！
The Americans believe that the Greece would be saved. That's why I always say that Americans are too dumb to understand politics. This is more a political matter than an economic matter. Who is going to pay the bill to save whom, is the first problem, which is nearly impossible to solve. EU can't do a better job than WTO on problem solving. Even if we assume this can be solved, which country can pay the bill? Every single country needs to be saved, and having difficulty on even saving themselves.
回覆刪除http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/100209/4/gj2u.html
回覆刪除See whether you will have some comments on this news.
In fact, the case of Greece is exactly the repetition of the demise of Lehman Brothers. When more and more large funds become the stake-holders of Greece’s CDS, they would have a strong incentive to make Greece in turmoil in order to make the CDS on hand become exercisible. Just like the shares of Lehman Brothers being desperately shorted in 07, which largely hampered the fund raising ability of Lehman Brothers and directly resulted in its bankruptcy. One of the strongest reasons is that many large funds were the stakeholders of Lehman Brothers’ CDS, they are more than happy to see the default of those bonds issued by Lehman Brothers.
回覆刪除The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers gave a fatal strike to AIG, so today we should keep our close eyes to see which insurer is the main issuer of Greece’s CDS.
The more recent news covered only that Goldman is making profit from it...
回覆刪除When I was mentioning the chain effect of what would happen if Greece default, someone challenged me with the fact that Iceland didn't cause a big trouble to the rest of the world...
Anyway, it is more a political matter than economic matter on whether there would be countries willing to pay the bill and save Greece...I've come across some articles that, actually if Greece can match the schedule on reducing its deficit, which I am in deep doubt, it can cause big trouble on its own economy...More or less like Japan, I guess? Huge debt that cannot be reduced, given the economy is poor enough?